As a gaming strategist with a focus on card games, particularly those involving strategy and probability, I'm often asked about optimal play in various situations. The question you've posed is a classic one in the realm of blackjack, where decisions must be made based on the cards you and the dealer have been dealt.

The scenario you've presented involves a player holding a hard 12 against a dealer's upcard of 3. Let's break down the situation and the strategic considerations involved.

Firstly, it's important to understand the basic strategy of blackjack. The goal is to have a hand value closer to 21 than the dealer without going over. A hard 12 is a hand that does not include an ace, which would make it a soft hand with more flexibility. With a hard 12, your options are limited, and the decision to hit or stand can significantly impact your chances of winning.

The dealer's upcard is a crucial piece of information. In this case, the dealer has shown a 3. This is a low card, which means the dealer is more likely to bust if they continue to draw cards. However, if the dealer does not bust, a player with a hard 12 has a limited chance of winning, as the dealer only needs to reach 17 to have a strong hand.

The reference material suggests that standing is a good idea when the dealer shows an upcard of 4, 5, or 6, as these are the cards most likely to lead to a bust. This is because the dealer has a higher chance of drawing a 10, which would result in a bust. However, when the dealer shows a 2 or 3, the situation changes. The dealer is more likely to draw a low card and improve their hand, which could lead to the player with a hard 12 losing.

So, should you hit or stand with a hard 12 against a 3? The decision is not straightforward and depends on several factors:


1. Player's Hand: A hard 12 is not a strong hand, and hitting allows you to improve your hand value.


2. Dealer's Upcard: With a 3, the dealer has a higher chance of drawing a low card to improve their hand.


3. House Rules: Different casinos have different rules that can affect your decision. For example, if the dealer hits soft 17, the dealer is more likely to bust, which might make standing a better option.


4. Player's Bankroll: If you have a large bankroll, you might be more willing to take risks, whereas a smaller bankroll might lead you to play more conservatively.


5. Game Strategy: Some players prefer a more aggressive strategy, hitting to try to improve their hand, while others prefer a more conservative approach, standing to minimize losses.


6. Card Counting: If you are skilled in card counting, you might have additional information about the composition of the remaining deck, which could influence your decision.

In general, the basic strategy for a hard 12 against a dealer's 2 or 3 is to hit. This is because the potential for the dealer to improve their hand is high, and hitting gives you a chance to improve your own hand. However, this is a simplified strategy and does not take into account all the nuances of the game.

It's also worth noting that blackjack is a game of skill, but it also involves a significant element of luck. Even the best strategy cannot guarantee a win every time. The key is to make decisions that maximize your expected value over the long term.

In conclusion, while the reference material suggests that hitting is the better option with a hard 12 against a 3, it's essential to consider the context of the game, including the dealer's upcard, house rules, your bankroll, and your overall strategy. Remember, blackjack is a game where both skill and luck play a part, and the best decisions are those that maximize your chances of winning in the long run.

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However, if the dealer does not bust then there is no way the player can win with a 12. It is still a good idea to stand when the dealer shows an upcard of 4, 5 or 6 (the biggest bust cards). However, it is still the better option to hit on a hard 12 when the dealer shows 2 or 3.read more >>