Hi there, I'm Gus, and poker's been my game for over 20 years. I've seen it all, from the dingy backrooms to the bright lights of Vegas. Let me tell you, mastering this game takes more than just luck; it takes grit, strategy, and a deep understanding of the numbers. Speaking of numbers, you're asking about EV, huh? That's the heart and soul of making consistently good decisions in poker. So buckle up, because I'm gonna break it down for ya.

## EV in Poker: Expecting the Unexpected

In poker, EV stands for Expected Value. Think of it as the average outcome of a decision if you were to play out that same hand countless times. Now, I know what you're thinking: we're only ever playing *one* hand at a time. That's true, but EV helps us look past the short-term variance—those lucky streaks and bad beats that are part of the game—and focus on the long-term profitability of our plays.

Let me give you an example:

Imagine you're playing Texas Hold'em, and you're holding a pair of Jacks. The flop comes down 7-8-King, all different suits. You've got top pair, which is strong, but there are a few things to consider.

Could your opponent have a better hand? Absolutely. They could have two pairs, a set, or even a straight. Could they be bluffing? Sure, anything's possible. This is where EV comes in.

To calculate EV in a simplified way, you need to consider two things:


1. How much can you win? This includes the current pot size and any potential future bets you might win if your hand holds up.

2. How likely are you to win? This is where it gets tricky, but you need to assess the strength of your hand against your opponent's *range* of possible hands.

Let's say the pot is currently $100, and your opponent bets $50. To call and see the next card (the turn), you have to risk $50 for a chance to win $150 (the pot plus their bet).

Now, let's say you estimate (based on their previous play, betting patterns, etc.) that you have a 40% chance of winning the hand if you call. Here's a simplified EV calculation:

* Positive EV: 0.40 (probability of winning) * $150 (potential winnings) = $60
* Negative EV: 0.60 (probability of losing) * $50 (your bet) = $30

In this scenario, the EV of calling is +$30 ($60 - $30). This means that, on average, you can expect to make $30 every time you face this exact situation.

Here's the key takeaway:

Positive EV means a decision is profitable in the long run, even if you don't win every single hand. Negative EV means a decision is likely to lose you money over time, even if you get lucky occasionally.

## EV Isn't Just for Math Wizards

I know what you're thinking: "Gus, I'm no Einstein. I can't calculate complex probabilities in my head while the clock's ticking!"

And you know what? That's okay. Most players don't do complex calculations at the table. The real power of EV is in understanding the *concept*.

By thinking about your potential wins and losses, and the likelihood of different outcomes, you can start making more +EV decisions naturally. This means:

* **Folding more often when you're likely behind.** Don't be afraid to lay down a decent hand if the situation calls for it. Chasing long-shot draws with weak holdings is a recipe for disaster.
* Betting and raising for value. When you have a strong hand, don't be afraid to bet big and extract maximum value from your opponents.
* Bluffing strategically. Bluffing is a part of poker, but it should be done selectively, in situations where you can realistically represent a strong hand and get your opponent to fold.

## EV: Your Path to Long-Term Success

Listen, poker is a game of skill and luck. You can't control the cards you're dealt, but you *can* control how you play them. By understanding and applying the concept of EV, you tip the scales in your favor.

It won't make you invincible, but it will help you become a more consistent, profitable player in the long run. Remember, in poker, it's not about winning every hand, it's about making the most profitable decisions hand after hand, session after session. That's how you build a bankroll and come out on top.

Now, go out there and make some +EV plays!

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Poker/Expected value. From Wikibooks, open books for an open world. < Poker. Expected Value (EV) is the average return on each dollar invested into a pot. If a player can expect, given probability to make more money than he or she bets, the action is said to have a positive expectation (+EV).read more >>